Project Democracy

Canadians don’t have an electoral system that directly reflects the ballot box. With our 'first-past-the-post' electoral system, vote splitting means Canadians end up with a majority Harper Government with as little as 35 percent of the popular vote. This is not the outcome most Canadians want, and avoiding it requires voter knowledge and cooperation.

In the last election was the go-to site for nearly half a million unique visitors who clicked in time and again to determine how they could mark their ballot to get an acceptable electoral outcome. If you were one of those 440,000 – congratulations, it worked! On the last day that public opinion polls were available, the VFE website model showed that the Conservatives were on track to win 152 seats, but on Monday, they were elected in 143. Our analysis shows thousands of visits to our advice regarding the candidate with the best chance to beat the Conservative in key ridings. builds on The stakes for our environment were very high in 2008, and remain at risk. Since then it has become even clearer that Harper is prepared to ignore the basic tenets of our democracy to keep in power and pursue his ideological agenda. For all those who care deeply about our democracy, stopping the Harper machine is job one.

Please sign up, check your riding, and spread the word (especially to people you may know in key ridings).

Here is how our riding prediction system works

This site calculates what the likely vote totals would be for each party based on today's polling.

The method is straight forward. For the math brains, here is the breakdown The provincial average for any party on election day 2008 resulted in a certain number of votes for that party in any given riding and a defined ratio of provincial average support to votes in the riding. That ratio is applied to an average of polling results for this election to calculate the number of votes the current support level would result in for a given party. This allows you to see how the votes would split today and who would likely win each riding.

Of course this assumes the quality of candidates and the overall situation in each riding is the same -- which is not always the case. In some ridings the situation changes dramatically, shifting that ridings relationship of votes compared to the provincial average. To account for this, the site applies corrections where, for instance, one party is not running a candidate. These corrections are completely transparent and if you don't agree with them they are easy for you to reset for yourself.

This simple but effective math tool make it easy for you to decode what all these polls we see on television likely mean for your riding. As the functionality is expanded over the coming days you will be able to see what the myriad of public polls mean for not only the results in your riding, but also for who forms government on May 2.